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Gaskin and Associates Consulting Group, LLC
NNPS proposal
October 8 2026
10
The forecast difference reconciled arithmetically
The two forecasts agree closely on their published 2025–26 baselines and diverge in projected
change. The completed arithmetic bridge isolates those two contributions. It does not apportion
housing, births, migration or grade progression. [S01, S43]
K–12 forecast
2025–26 baseline
2030–31 forecast
Projected change
WXY
24,370
24,023
−347
UVA
24,360
22,285
−2,075
WXY less UVA
10
1,738
1,728
Accounting identity using rounded displayed counts: 1,738 final-year gap = 10 baseline gap + 1,728
difference in projected change. The underlying UVA 2030–31 value is 22,285.0535; the calculation
retains that unrounded value. The forecasts are competing models, not upper and lower confidence
bounds.
UVA annual series for a dated comparison
School year
K–5
Grades 6–8
Grades 9–12
K–12 total
2025-2026 actual
11,408
5,601
7,351
24,360
2026-2027 projected
11,249
5,520
7,182
23,951
2027-2028 projected
10,951
5,454
7,128
23,533
2028-2029 projected
10,674
5,343
7,054
23,071
2029-2030 projected
10,379
5,344
6,912
22,634
2030-2031 projected
10,187
5,186
6,912
22,285
Totals are calculated from unrounded grade cells; rounded components may differ by one from a rounded total.
Source: UVA February 2026 projection vintage. [S43]
What the arithmetic cannot resolve
WXY’s student-level baseline, housing timing and grade-progression inputs must be compared with
UVA’s fall membership, births and progression assumptions on the same dates and grades. WXY’s
reported 429 housing-related pupils are an input to examine, not an additional 429 to add to the
forecast or an established share of the gap.
A citywide decline does not establish spare places at each receiver. The next calculation must place
pupils by school and grade under both models. The 158-place and 34-place headroom results later in
this report are capacity breakpoints, not substitute school enrollment forecasts.Jump to an indexed page (48 of 48)